![]() Without cutting the federal fund rate, Ackman says he sees “a real risk of a hard landing” - a fast change of pace in economic growth that causes a recession - in 2024. Ackman’s argument is that with inflation going down, but rates staying raised, the real rate of interest is getting higher still. Bill Ackman, founder of Pershing Square Capital ManagementĮarlier this week, billionaire investor Bill Ackman told Bloomberg that he expects the Fed to cut rates in the first quarter of 2024. It reasoned that the timing of these cuts would help the Fed to get ahead of the turbulence. economy to fall into a recession at some point in the second quarter. ![]() The bank expects these cuts to come in March because it expects the U.S. ![]() The bank’s note earlier in the month said that it expects rate cuts to begin in March, and it expects the Fed to cut interest rates by a whopping 275 basis points, or 2.75%. Investment bank UBS predicts rate cuts in the near future, but it also predicts a sizable economic downturn at the same time. He predicts interest rate cuts as early as March. He evidenced the claim by saying that since the Fed released its economic projections in September, inflation and unemployment figures have slowed more than expected, giving credence to the possibility of rate cuts sooner rather than later. In a column for Bloomberg, Peachtree Creek Investments founder Conor Sen argued that cutting rates in the first half of 2024 will help the Fed “preserve the expansion” that it led when it began hiking rates. Prediction: Fed interest rate cuts coming in early 2024 Conor Sen, founder of Peachtree Creek Investments So, when can we expect interest rates to start dropping? Here’s what some experts are saying. As it stands now, the Fed has paused rates at about 5.25%. The Fed is vague about when it will begin to cut rates in fact, it hasn’t even announced the end to its hikes yet. More broadly, businesses would find it cheaper to borrow too, allowing them to increase their spending and ultimately leading the price of stocks upward. In real estate, the rate cuts would translate to lower mortgage rates for homebuyers and more incentive for owners to sell, thereby boosting the inventory of homes on the market. Rate cuts are expected, but there is little consensus about exactly when they'll come. Now the inflation rate is at 3.2%, close to the Fed’s target rate of 2%, but interest rates remain high. ![]() Hawaii Alaska Florida South Carolina Georgia Alabama North Carolina Tennessee RI Rhode Island CT Connecticut MA Massachusetts Maine NH New Hampshire VT Vermont New York NJ New Jersey DE Delaware MD Maryland West Virginia Ohio Michigan Arizona Nevada Utah Colorado New Mexico South Dakota Iowa Indiana Illinois Minnesota Wisconsin Missouri Louisiana Virginia DC Washington DC Idaho California North Dakota Washington Oregon Montana Wyoming Nebraska Kansas Oklahoma Pennsylvania Kentucky Mississippi Arkansas Texas Get Started In March 2022, with inflation rising to almost 9%, it began to hike interest rates to make it more pricey to borrow, with the hopes of cooling the economy and slowing down runaway price increases on a wide range of goods and services. In 2020, for example, the Fed lowered this rate to 0% to encourage spending and stimulate the economy after the pandemic slowdown. It can essentially wield this rate to slow down or speed up the economy like a pressure valve. Raising this rate allows the Fed to shrink the amount of money available and make it more expensive to borrow. That’s the interest rate at which banks can borrow or lend to one another overnight. The central bank has the liberty to change the federal funds rate at will. While it now looks like the long stretch of rate hikes is finished or close to it, the new question is: When will the Fed begin to cut interest rates? Experts are torn on an answer. Everyone has been following the Federal Reserve’s moves for the past two years, wondering what the central bank will do next with interest rates.
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